Sunday, January 7, 2018

7-JAN Bracket Projections: Duke/Michigan St Fall, WVU/Nova Move Up

My one seeds have shuffled after an active weekend.  Duke and Michigan State dropped roadies to teams living around the cut line on my projections, and now fall out of my one seed line.  This allows Villanova and West Virginia, previously two seeds for me, to move up a spot.  Purdue and Texas Tech remain on my one seed line to round out my four top spots.

Teams With A Zero
We’re now down to five.  Congratulations to the Longwood Lancers who earned their first Big South win, as well as their first Division I win.  Gardner Webb came in to Farmville 2-0 in Big South play, but left with a 79-73 loss on their resume. 

Of the five remaining, Coppin State has a legitimate chance to squeak out a win tomorrow. They host the FAMU Rattlers who were on this list until knocking off Howard this past Monday.  It would give Juan Dixon his first win at this level, and fourth career win if you include his 2016 D2 women’s record.

In SWAC play, Alcorn State also has a reasonable chance to move off the list as they host Grambling State tomorrow.  That’s right, the same GSU team that went into Georgia Tech and won 64-63.  If that’s too much of a stretch for you to consider, then I have another option.  Alcorn State and Mississippi Valley State will square off this coming Saturday, so something will have to give for one of these two.

Winless (against Division I) teams (5): Chicago State, Delaware State, Mississippi Valley State, Alcorn State, and Coppin State.

Quadrant 1 Wins
Purdue now has company after dropping back from five wins to four.  The Kansas Jayhawks, fresh off their victory over TCU now also have four Quadrant I wins to co-lead the field.  Purdue has the slightly better Q1 winning percentage (4-1) than Kansas (4-2).

There are currently 12 schools with three Q1 wins, with Duke and Miami both 3-0 in such chances.  Duke’s losses are Q2 losses, while the Hurricanes have a Q2 and a Q3 loss.

Sitting at two Q1 wins are another 28 teams.  Of those schools, six also have four losses by the same criteria.  Arkansas, Butler, Tennessee, Temple, Belmont and Indiana are all 2-4.

(4)- Purdue and Kansas

(3)- West Virginia, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Auburn, Arizona, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, Texas A&M, Duke, Florida, Providence and Miami Florida

Notable Games (predictions in italics, 5-0 last week, 25-10 overall)
This week's top five as I see them:
#5 Thursday, Oregon at Arizona St.- Arizona St. 81, Oregon 76
#4 Tuesday, Baylor at West Virginia- West Virginia 77, Baylor 70
#3 Tuesday, Texas Tech at Oklahoma- Texas Tech 79, Oklahoma 78
#2 Wednesday, Xavier at Villanova- Villanova 82, Xavier 76
#1 Tuesday, Purdue at Michigan- Purdue 72, Michigan 70


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