Sunday, January 21, 2018

21-JAN Bracket Projections: Softly Spoken Lies- I'm Coming Down The Mountain (West)

Bracket Updates
Last weekend I updated my SWAC auto to Jackson State.  That turned out to be not my finest moment, as the Tigers got obliterated by Grambling State this weekend losing 72-45.  They now fall out, and Texas Southern replaces them.

My Mountain West campaign also conceded ground, with San Diego State and UNLV falling on the other side of the cut line.  Boise State remains (barely) in the field, but my bracket now looks like a more recent NCAA Tournament bracket as opposed to one of those several years ago that were heavy on the conference.  Oregon (tough update for my former PST teams) and Penn State also fall out.

USC, winners of four in a row and six of seven, finally resurfaces on a seed line for me.  Texas A&M and Western Kentucky also move in.

Teams With A Zero
An uneventful weekend for the tripLLLets.  Mississippi Valley State had a second half lead before succumbing to Texas Southern 91-77.  Donte Clark had 41 points on 26 shots for Mike Davis’s club.  They now head west to Prairie View A&M for a game Monday (prediction: 75-67 PV A&M).  Delaware State hosted Bethune Cookman, and like the Delta Devils also held a second half lead, but ultimately fell 85-78 to the Wildcats.  The Hornets head to Baltimore Monday for a tilt against Morgan State (prediction: MSU 76-68).  Finally Chicago State hosted Cal State Bakersfield, and lost 89-78.  The Cougars most winnable regular season game appears to be their regular season finale at this point, where they will be an underdog.  They do however get a few days off, and won’t play again until hosting UT Rio Grande Valley this Saturday.

Winless (against Division I) teams (3): Chicago State, Delaware State, and Mississippi Valley State.

Quadrant 1 Wins (Home vs Top 30 RPI, Neutral vs Top 50 RPI, Road vs Top 75 RPI)
Of the Bracket Matrix teams I’d consider bubble teams (teams in the field but not on 10% or more of brackets, plus the first four out), below are the quadrant 1 wins.  The below eleven teams would be vying for seven spots.  Bracket Matrix seed shown in parenthesis:

(F4O) Houston 2-1 .667

(F4O) Georgia 3-3, (10) Alabama 2-2, (11) USC 2-2 .500

(11) SMU 2-3, (11) Providence 2-3 .400

(11) Syracuse 1-3, (11) UCLA 1-3 .250

(F4O) Maryland 1-6, (F4O) Baylor 1-6 .143

(11) Boise State 0-3 .000

Boise State might really regret not being able to cash in at Nevada this weekend. 

Kansas may not have the most wins, but they hold the best record of the teams below at 6-1.  Big East Rivals Xavier and Villanova are 4-1.  Purdue is 7-2, and Clemson is 5-2 rounding out the top 5.

NCAA Q1 Win Leaders
(7)- Purdue
(6)- Kansas
(5)- North Carolina, Oklahoma, Clemson
(4)- Villanova, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Florida, Texas, Xavier, Duke
(3)- 14 teams

Notable Games (predictions in italics, 4-1 last week, 36-19 overall)
This week's top five as I see them:
#5 Tuesday, Kansas at Oklahoma- Oklahoma 82, Kansas 81
#4 Thursday, Michigan at Purdue- Purdue 75, Michigan 66
#3 Thursday, BYU at Saint Mary’s- Saint Mary’s 73, BYU 69
#2 Monday, North Carolina at Virginia Tech- Virginia Tech 80, North Carolina 76
#1 Tuesday, Clemson at Virginia- Virginia 69, Clemson 63


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