Monday, December 25, 2017

25-DEC Bracket Projections: The Day After Tomorrow

Nobody celebrates Boxing Day like College Basketball.  Tomorrow is a day off for all of Division I, the last such day until the end of the regular season.  The return to action is a slow crescendo, with just 16 games between D1 teams on Wednesday, but among them are 9 conference games including the openers for the Big East, American Athletic and Mountain West.

Teams With A Zero
Roll Along you BG Warriors.  Separated by Dan Dakich and Louis Orr on the Falcons coaching lineage you’ll find Jim Larranaga and Chris Jans.  In a tournament hosted by the Big Island’s Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, it was the Aggies of New Mexico State under the tutelage of Jans who rolled out the Hurricanes their first loss of the season 63-54.

On the other side of the ledger, Howard falls off the winless list.  The Bison were down 10 with under seven minutes to go before coming back to knock off UNC Wilmington 80-75.  Most of those coming from a single source, as freshman RJ Cole amassed 42 points on an efficient 22 field goal attempts, along with four assists.

Undefeated teams (3): Villanova, Arizona State, and TCU.

Winless (against Division I) teams (17): Chicago State, Delaware State, Alabama State, Alabama A&M, Mississippi Valley State, Florida A&M, Alcorn State, Coppin State, Arkansas Pine Bluff, Longwood, Youngstown State, Norfolk State, McNeese State, Texas Southern, Cal State Northridge, New Orleans, and Texas A&M Corpus Christi.

Quadrant 1 Wins
Purdue joins Villanova as the only teams with 4 Quadrant 1 wins.  Quite a bit of shakeup in the next tier, however.  North Carolina, Kansas and Alabama all drop out of the grouping of 3 wins.  Duke and Texas moved up into that void along with the Georgia Bulldogs shooting up out of nowhere.  Georgia knocked off Temple at home (13 RPI).  They also have a couple wins flirting with the edge of the cutoff; a neutral side win over #49 RPI Saint Mary’s, and a road win over #63 Marquette.

(4)- Villanova, Purdue
(3)- Arizona State, Temple, Duke, Texas, and Georgia

Notable Games (predictions in italics, 3-2 last week, 14-6 overall)
This weekend's top five as I see them:
#5 Friday, West Virginia at Oklahoma St.- West Virginia 74, Oklahoma St. 73
#4 Saturday, Oklahoma at TCU- TCU 85, Oklahoma 82
#3 Saturday, North Carolina St. at Clemson- Clemson 76, North Carolina St. 73
#2 Friday, Baylor at Texas Tech- Texas Tech 74, Baylor 68
#1 Saturday, Florida St. at Duke- Duke 81, Florida St. 77 


  1. What else does Tennessee have to do to get in? With a top 10 S0S and their only losses against NOVA and UNC, their resume is easily good enough to be in the bracket.

  2. I've been vexed by this all year. They also have a win over Purdue, which I'd argue is their crowning achievement thus far. They have inched closer in December, but not yet cracked the field.

    They're obviously a victim of displacement by soft non-conf schedules by paper tigers, which allowed for impressive victory margins for other teams. That's a component (MOV) of what I pick up, and is skewed when the results to date are all (or mostly) non-conference games.

    It will get sorted as Tennessee moves into SEC play and picks up some nice resume wins, and others come back to earth.