Thursday, February 21, 2019

21-FEB Bracket Projections: Wisconsin rises, LSU drops.


Teams Left
In the last post we reviewed the four teams of the 353 who have already been eliminated from contention related to eligibility requirements.  With this post we have our first casualty related to their record on the court.  The Horizon League has scaled back their bracket this year, and no longer will teams in the nine and ten spot get a chance for the title.  Cleveland State’s loss on Thursday night eliminated them from a top eight standing.  The Vikings last trip to the tournament was ten years ago.  348 teams remain.


Notable Games
This weekend's top five as I see them (1-4 last week, 88-57 overall):
#5 Virginia at Louisville, Sat – Virginia 68, Louisville 66
#4 Florida State at North Carolina, Sat – North Carolina 78, Florida State 73
#3 Kansas at Texas Tech, Sat – Texas Tech 72, Kansas 65
#2 Auburn at Kentucky, Sat – Kentucky 74, Auburn 71
#1 Michigan State at Michigan, Sun – Michigan 69, Michigan State 67


Bracket
My updated bracket can be found below.  This bracket (as well as my previous brackets) are a projection of where I think the teams will be as of Selection Sunday.  In other words, it includes their future schedule, for better or for worse. 

Three automatic bids being swapped out in this update. 
Sun Belt- Georgia Southern (Texas State)
SWAC- Texas Southern (Grambling State)
Northeast- Fairleigh Dickinson (Sacred Heart)

I’m switching out two at-large bids in this update.  Illinois and Seton Hall are in, Furman and Clemson are out. 

My latest bracket has two bids going to a first timer, with Quinnipiac and Abilene Christian earning a spot.  Wichita State (7), Arizona (6), Xavier (5), Providence (5), West Virginia (4), Butler (4), Miami FL (3) and Iona (3) would see multiple year streaks of tournament appearances snapped if this bracket would hold.  Georgia Southern and Quinnipiac would be ending droughts of at least 20 years with an automatic bid. 



Sunday, February 17, 2019

17-FEB Bracket Projections: LSU, Buffalo rises, Kansas State drops.


Teams Left
As of Monday we will be just fourteen days away from the start of conference tournaments which begin on March 4th.  The Atlantic Sun will start things up with four quarterfinal matchups.  As it stands, there are 353 teams in the Division I universe, but only 349 are eligible to make a run at the national championship.  Two teams, Cal Baptist and North Alabama are going through the transition to Division I to earn their eligibility.  Obviously those two programs have never made the NCAA tournament.  They are two of 43 such programs, and the remaining 41 teams are still eligible for postseason. 

It was announced at the beginning of the year that Alabama A&M would not be eligible as a result of APR violations.  Last week Florida A&M also announced they would need to sit out of consideration due to requirements stemming from APR.  This number will grow over the next two weeks as not all conference tournaments allow the entire field into their brackets.


Notable Games
This week's top five as I see them (5-0 last week, 87-53 overall):
#5 Florida at LSU, Wed – LSU 74, Florida 69
#4 Maryland at Iowa, Tue – Iowa 74, Maryland 71
#3 UCF at Cincinnati, Thu – Cincinnati 70, UCF 66
#2 Virginia at Virginia Tech, Mon – Virginia Tech 66, Virginia 65
#1 North Carolina at Duke, Wed – Duke 81, North Carolina 75


Bracket
My updated bracket can be found below.  This bracket (as well as my previous brackets) are a projection of where I think the teams will be as of Selection Sunday.  In other words, it includes their future schedule, for better or for worse.
 
Two automatic bids being swapped out in this update. 
MAAC- Quinnipiac (Rider)
Southland- Abilene Christian (Sam Houston State)

I’m also switching out two at-large bids in this update.  Temple and Utah State are in, while Alabama and Arkansas are out.    

My latest bracket has four bids going to a first timer, with Quinnipiac, Abilene Christian, Sacred Heart and Grambling State earning a spot.  Wichita State (7), Arizona (6), Xavier (5), Providence (5), West Virginia (4), Butler (4), Seton Hall (3), Miami FL (3) and Iona (3) would see multiple year streaks of tournament appearances snapped if this bracket would hold.  Grambling State, Quinnipiac, and Texas State would be ending droughts of at least 20 years with an automatic bid.  Furman would both be earning their first bid since 1980 via an at large bid.



Thursday, February 14, 2019

14-FEB Bracket Projections: Florida State rises, Wisconsin, TCU drops.


Notable Games
This weekend's top five as I see them (2-3 last week, 82-53 overall):
#5 Ohio State at Michigan State, Sun – Michigan State 74, Ohio State 67
#4 Baylor at Texas Tech, Sat – Texas Tech 69, Baylor 63
#3 North Carolina State at Duke, Sat – Duke 79, North Carolina State 72
#2 Maryland at Michigan, Sat – Michigan 69, Maryland 64
#1 Tennessee at Kentucky, Sat – Kentucky 74, Tennessee 73


Bracket
My updated bracket can be found below.  This bracket (as well as my previous brackets) are a projection of where I think the teams will be as of Selection Sunday.  In other words, it includes their future schedule, for better or for worse. 

Two automatic bids being swapped out in this update. 
Patriot- Bucknell (Lehigh)
SWAC- Grambling State (Texas Southern)

I’m switching out one at-large bid in this update.  Mississippi is back in, while Toledo is out. 

My latest bracket has two bids going to a first timer, with Sacred Heart and Grambling State earning a spot.  Wichita State (7), Arizona (6), Xavier (5), Providence (5), West Virginia (4), Butler (4), Seton Hall (3), Miami FL (3) and Iona (3) would see multiple year streaks of tournament appearances snapped if this bracket would hold.  Grambling State, Rider, and Texas State would be ending droughts of at least 20 years with an automatic bid.  Furman would both be earning their first bid since 1980 via an at large bid.



Sunday, February 10, 2019

10-FEB Bracket Projections: Kansas State rises, St. John’s, Iowa State, Indiana drops.


Notable Games
This week's top five as I see them (4-1 last week, 80-50 overall):
#5 Purdue at Maryland, Tue – Maryland 72, Purdue 70
#4 LSU at Kentucky, Tue – Kentucky 77, LSU 72
#3 Michigan State at Wisconsin, Tue –Wisconsin 70, Michigan State 69
#2 Duke at Louisville, Tue – Duke 75, Louisville 73
#1 Virginia at North Carolina, Mon – North Carolina 72, Virginia 71


Bracket
My updated bracket can be found below.  This bracket (as well as my previous brackets) are a projection of where I think the teams will be as of Selection Sunday.  In other words, it includes their future schedule, for better or for worse. 

One automatic bids being swapped out in this update, which is a reversal of the last update. 
Patriot- Lehigh (Colgate)

I’m switching out three at-large bids in this update.  Toledo, Clemson, and Furman are in.  Georgetown, Nebraska, and Seton Hall are out. 

My latest bracket has a lone bid going to a first timer, with Sacred Heart earning a spot.  Wichita State (7), Arizona (6), Xavier (5), Providence (5), West Virginia (4), Butler (4), Seton Hall (3), Miami FL (3) and Iona (3) would see multiple year streaks of tournament appearances snapped if this bracket would hold.  Rider and Texas State would be ending droughts of at least 20 years with an automatic bid.  Furman and Toledo would both be earning their first bid since 1980 via an at large bid.



Thursday, February 7, 2019

7-FEB Bracket Projections: St. John’s rises, Mississippi State drops.


Notable Games
This weekend's top five as I see them (2-3 last week, 76-49 overall):
#5 Villanova at Marquette, Sat – Marquette 73, Villanova 70
#4 Auburn at LSU, Sat – LSU 76, Auburn 75
#3 Wisconsin at Michigan, Sat – Michigan 67, Wisconsin 62
#2 Cincinnati at Houston, Sun – Houston 70, Cincinnati 66
#1 Duke at Virginia, Sat – Virginia 70, Duke 68


Bracket
My updated bracket can be found below.  This bracket (as well as my previous brackets) are a projection of where I think the teams will be as of Selection Sunday.  In other words, it includes their future schedule, for better or for worse. 

One automatic bids being swapped out in this update. 
Patriot- Colgate (Lehigh)

I’m switching out four at-large bids in this update.  Georgetown, Alabama, Arkansas and Seton Hall are in.  Temple, Minnesota, Utah St. and Furman are out. 

My latest bracket has a lone bid going to a first timer, with Sacred Heart earning a spot.  Wichita State (7), Arizona (6), Xavier (5), Providence (5), West Virginia (4), Butler (4), Miami FL (3) and Iona (3) would see multiple year streaks of tournament appearances snapped if this bracket would hold.  Rider, Colgate, and Texas State would be ending droughts of at least 20 years with an automatic bid. 



Sunday, February 3, 2019

3-FEB Bracket Projections: Indiana rises, Minnesota NC State, drop.


Notable Games
This week's top five as I see them (2-3 last week, 74-46 overall):
#5 San Francisco at Gonzaga, Thu – Gonzaga 79, San Francisco 70
#4 North Carolina State at North Carolina, Tue – North Carolina 79, North Carolina State 75
#3 Maryland at Nebraska, Wed – Nebraska 72, Maryland 68
#2 Houston at UCF, Thu – UCF 69, Houston 68
#1 Louisville at Virginia Tech, Mon – Virginia Tech 74, Louisville 68


Bracket
My updated bracket can be found below.  This bracket (as well as my previous brackets) are a projection of where I think the teams will be as of Selection Sunday.  In other words, it includes their future schedule, for better or for worse. 

Two automatic bids being swapped out in this update. 
Southland- Sam Houston State (Abilene Christian)
SWAC- Texas Southern (Prairie View A&M)

I’m switching out three at-large bids in this update.  Three teams outside the Power 6 are in, all at the expense of P6 teams.  Temple, Utah State and Furman are in.  Mississippi, Alabama and Seton Hall are out. 

My latest bracket has a lone bid going to a first timer, with Sacred Heart earning a spot.  Wichita State (7), Arizona (6), Xavier (5), Providence (5), West Virginia (4), Butler (4), Seton Hall (3), Miami FL (3) and Iona (3) would see multiple year streaks of tournament appearances snapped if this bracket would hold.  Rider, and Texas State would be ending droughts of at least 20 years with an automatic bid.  Furman, via an at large bid, would be making their first trip since 1980.


Thursday, January 31, 2019

31-JAN Bracket Projections: Minnesota rises, NC State, Iowa, Nebraska and Indiana drop.


Teams with a Zero
UNC Asheville has won a game every month this college basketball season.  In November, it was the St. Andrew’s Knights who were nearly doubled up by the Bulldogs 87-47.  December’s win was a comeback affair after trailing by one at the half to the Milligan Buffaloes, before winning 86-76.  Most notably though, in the final game on the January schedule, the Bulldogs earned their first win against Division I competition with a 71-62 win.  It was UNC Asheville’s best effort from an efficiency standpoint, which saw them post 1.15 points per possession while getting to the line 29 times.  They were the last team to earn a win over another Division I program.  The 2015 Grambling State and San Jose State teams can celebrate remaining the last teams to finish a season without a D1 win.  


Notable Games
This weekend's top five as I see them (2-3 last week, 72-43 overall):
#5 Texas Tech at Kansas, Sat – Texas Tech 69, Kansas 68
#4 San Francisco at Saint Mary’s, Sat – Saint Mary’s 71, San Francisco 69
#3 Maryland at Wisconsin, Fri – Wisconsin 70, Maryland 66
#2 Virginia Tech at North Carolina State, Sat – North Carolina State 74, Virginia Tech 72
#1 North Carolina at Louisville, Sat – Louisville 77, North Carolina 75


Bracket
My updated bracket can be found below.  This bracket (as well as my previous brackets) are a projection of where I think the teams will be as of Selection Sunday.  In other words, it includes their future schedule, for better or for worse. 

Three automatic bids being swapped out in this update. 
NEC- Sacred Heart (Fairleigh Dickinson)
Atlantic 10- VCU (Dayton)
CUSA- Old Dominion (North Texas)

Only switching out one at-large bid in this update.  DePaul is out, Seton Hall is in. 

My latest bracket has two bids going to a first timer, with Sacred Heart and Abilene Christian earning a spot.  Wichita State (7), Arizona (6), Xavier (5), Providence (5), West Virginia (4), Butler (4), Miami FL (3) and Iona (3) would see multiple year streaks of tournament appearances snapped if this bracket would hold.  Rider, Texas State and Prairie View A&M would be ending droughts of at least 20 years with an automatic bid.