Teams Left
Harvard, Tennessee, St. Bonaventure, UT Arlington and
Houston have all been eliminated from conference tournament action on Sunday. The Michigan/Michigan State loser will going
this list as the field is whittled down to a final 32 teams. My 36 at large guesses are listed below to
build the field back up to 68.
Bracket
One automatic bid being updated with this post.
Atlantic 10- Saint Louis (St. Bonaventure)
One at large update.
After final vetting of my selections, I am pulling St. John’s and adding
in Florida. More details on both schools
profile can be found below, but the largest factor is the low difference in NET
and kenpom for both programs. Florida is
top 35 in both, while St. John’s is sub-70 in both. The Red Storm have the preferable Q1 and
Q1/Q2 record, but I don’t think it’s enough for the committee to get them in
the field. I would have given this to
Indiana or Texas but the losses I think will keep them off the committee’s
bracket.
The At Larges
Now that we know the automatic bid, a quick bit of rationale
on my at large selections. First, I
think it’s reasonable to assume the following 20 schools are locks: Virginia,
Gonzaga, Kentucky, North Carolina, Michigan/Michigan State, Texas Tech, Virginia
Tech, Purdue, LSU, Florida State, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Mississippi State,
Kansas, Kansas State, Houston, Maryland, Marquette, Oklahoma, and Iowa. Each of those programs meet the following
qualifications entering Sunday:
-
Top 43 in NET
-
At least 4 Quadrant 1 wins
-
A 29% or better Q1 winning percentage
-
At least 10 Q1/Q2 wins
-
A 46% or better Q1/Q2 winning percentage
-
1 or fewer bad losses (Q3/Q4)
Those metrics are not as arbitrary as they seem. When removing the automatic bid schools,
teams that met those parameters were in the top 36 in each of those
categories. When handing out 36 bids,
that seems like a reasonable measuring stick to start with.
So what about the remaining 16 bids. The candidates:
Louisville: 22nd NET, 4 Q1 wins, 9 Q1/Q2 wins, 1
bad loss. 17th in kenpom,
elite wins over Michigan State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech. Sub-50 losses to Pittsburgh and Boston
College. Projection: In.
Seton Hall: 7 Q1 wins, 47% Q1 winning percentage, 14 Q1/Q2
wins. 55th in kenpom, elite
wins over Kentucky, Maryland. Sub-50
losses to Saint Louis, DePaul, DePaul, Providence, Butler, Xavier, St. John’s,
Georgetown. Projection: In
Nevada: 23rd NET, 50% Q1 winning percentage, 80%
Q1/Q2 winning percentage. 25th
in kenpom, elite wins over nobody.
Sub-50 losses to New Mexico, San Diego State, and San Diego State. Projection: In.
UCF: 30th NET, 53% Q1/Q2 winning percentage, 1
bad loss. 46th in kenpom,
elite wins over Houston. Sub-50 losses
to Florida Atlantic, Missouri, Wichita State, Memphis, Memphis, and Temple. Projection: In.
VCU: 34th NET, 50% Q1 wins, 56% Q1/Q2 winning
percentage. 37th in kenpom,
elite wins over nobody. Sub-50 losses to
St. John’s, Old Dominion, Charleston, Davidson, Rhode Island, and Rhode
Island. Projection: In.
Minnesota: 5 Q1 wins, 33% Q1 winning percentage, 12 Q1/Q2
wins, 1 bad loss. 47th in
kenpom, elite wins over Wisconsin, Purdue and Purdue. Sub-50 losses to Boston College, Illinois,
Rutgers. Projection: In.
Baylor: 39th NET, 4 Q1 wins, 31% Q1 winning
percentage, 12 Q1/Q2 wins, 55% Q1/Q2 winning percentage. 41st in kenpom, elite wins over
Iowa State, Iowa State, and Texas Tech.
Sub-50 losses to Texas Southern, Wichita State, Stephen F. Austin, and
Oklahoma State. Projection: In.
TCU: 3 Q1 wins, 9 Q1/Q2 wins, no bad losses. 48th in kenpom, elite wins over
Iowa State and Iowa State. Sub-50 losses
to Lipscomb, Oklahoma State, and West Virginia.
Projection: In.
Arizona State: 3 Q1 wins, 50% Q1 winning percentage, 11
Q1/Q2 wins, 65% Q1/Q2 winning percentage.
61st in kenpom, elite wins over Mississippi State and
Kansas. Sub-50 losses to Vanderbilt,
Princeton, Utah, Stanford, USC, Washington State, and Colorado. Projection: In.
Mississippi: 36th NET, 4 Q1 wins, 0 bad losses. 45th in kenpom, elite wins over
Auburn, Auburn, and Mississippi State.
Sub-50 losses to Butler, Alabama, South Carolina, Arkansas, and Alabama.
Projection: In.
Temple: 50% Q1/Q2 winning percentage, one bad loss. 76th in kenpom, elite win over
Houston. Sub-50 losses to Penn, Tulsa,
Memphis, and Wichita State. Projection:
In.
Syracuse: 42nd NET, 3 Q1 wins. 34th in kenpom, elite wins over
Duke and Louisville. Sub-50 losses to
Connecticut, Old Dominion, and Georgia Tech.
Projection: In.
Florida: 31st NET, 4 Q1 wins. 28th in kenpom, elite wins over
LSU and LSU. Sub-50 losses to Butler,
South Carolina, and Georgia. 15
losses. Projection: In.
North Carolina State: 33rd NET, 3 Q1 wins, 47%
Q1/Q2 winning percentage. 32nd
in kenpom, elite wins over Auburn. Sub-50
losses to Wake Forest, Georgia Tech.
Projection: In.
Washington: 45th NET, 33% Q1 winning percentage,
10 Q1/Q2 wins, 59% Q1/Q2 winning percentage, 1 bad loss. 51st in kenpom, elite wins over
nobody. Sub-50 losses to Arizona State
and California. Projection: In.
Ohio State: 4 Q1 wins, 9 Q1/Q2 wins, 1 bad loss. 44th in kenpom, elite wins over
nobody. Sub-50 losses to Rutgers,
Illinois, and Northwestern. Projection:
In.
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Saint John’s: 5 Q1 wins, 42% Q1 winning percentage, 10 Q1/Q2
wins, 50% Q1/Q2 winning percentage. 79th
in kenpom, elite wins over nobody.
Sub-50 losses to Seton Hall, DePaul, DePaul, Butler, Georgetown,
Providence, Providence, Xavier, and Xavier.
Projection: Out.
Indiana: 6 Q1 wins, 40% Q1 winning percentage, no bad
losses. 42nd in kenpom, elite
wins over Louisville, Michigan State, Michigan State, and Wisconsin. Sub-50 losses to Arkansas, Northwestern and Rutgers. 15 losses.
Projection: Out.
Texas: 38th NET, 5 Q1 wins, 33% Q1 winning
percentage, 9 Q1/Q2 wins, one bad loss.
30th in kenpom, elite wins over North Carolina, Purdue,
Kansas State, Kansas, and Iowa State.
Sub-50 losses to Radford, Providence, Oklahoma State, and Georgia. 16 losses.
Projection: Out.
Creighton: 3 Q1 wins, 9 Q1/Q2 wins, no bad losses. 50th in kenpom, elite wins over
nobody. Sub-50 losses to Butler, St.
John’s, St. John’s, Seton Hall, Seton Hall, Xavier, and Xavier. Projection: Out.
Alabama: 3 Q1 wins, 10 Q1/Q2 wins, 44% Q1/Q2 winning
percentage. 60th in kenpom,
elite wins over Kentucky. Sub-50 losses
to Northeastern, Georgia State, Texas A&M, Texas A&M, and
Arkansas. 15 losses. Projection: Out.
Belmont: 47th NET, 50% Q1 winning percentage, 63%
Q1/Q2 winning percentage. 54th
in kenpom, elite wins over nobody.
Sub-50 losses to Green Bay, Jacksonville State, Jacksonville State, and
Murray State. Projection: Out.
Clemson: 35th NET, no bad losses. 29th in kenpom, elite wins over
Virginia Tech. Sub-50 losses to Miami
FL. Projection: Out.
Georgetown: 5 Q1 wins, 46% Q1 winning percentage, 11 Q1/Q2
wins, 50% Q1/Q2 winning percentage. 91st
in kenpom, elite wins over nobody.
Sub-50 losses to Loyola Marymount, SMU, St. John’s, Xavier, Butler,
Seton Hall, Seton Hall, and DePaul.
Projection: Out.
UNCG: No bad losses.
81st in kenpom, elite wins over nobody. Sub-50 losses to Furman. Projection: Out.
Butler: 9 Q1/Q2 wins, one bad loss. 68th in kenpom, elite wins over
nobody. Sub-50 losses to Dayton, Saint
Louis, Georgetown, Seton Hall, Xavier, St. John’s, Providence, Providence, and
Providence. 16 losses. Projection: Out.
Toledo: 67% Q1/Q2 winning percentage. 58th in kenpom, elite wins over
nobody. Sub-50 losses to Wright State,
Ball State, Kent State, Eastern Michigan, and Northern Illinois. Projection: Out.
Lipscomb: 40% Q1 winning percentage, one bad loss. 53rd in kenpom, elite wins over
nobody. Sub-50 losses to Belmont,
Belmont, Liberty, Liberty and Florida Gulf Coast. Projection: Out.
Memphis: 46th NET, one bad loss. 62nd in kenpom, elite wins over
nobody. Sub-50 losses to Oklahoma State,
Charleston, Temple, Tulsa, and South Florida.
Projection: Out.
Nebraska: 48th NET, 3 Q1 wins, 9 Q1/Q2 wins, no
bad losses. 39th in kenpom,
elite wins over Maryland. Sub-50 losses
to Rutgers and Illinois. 16 losses. Projection: Out.
Furman: 41st NET, one bad loss. 56th in kenpom, elite wins over
nobody. Sub-50 losses to East Tennessee
State, UNC Greensboro, Samford, and UNC Greensboro. Projection: Out.